The beginning of autumn has passed! 2021 the price of pigs will rise above 12 yuan?

Rainbow was seen after the wind and rain, and the pig market was fulfilled again this time. With the influence of typhoon, heavy rainfall in many places increased, thus restricting the transportation of live pigs and pork. The superposition of the gradual clearing of big pigs, the tightening of imported meat, the completion of the task of large-scale pig enterprises approaching the end of the month this month, the supply side of live pigs is temporarily in a tight situation, and the pig market has strengthened horizontally, the magnitude or will be limited.

At present, the pig market is showing a trend of strengthening in a narrow range, which makes farmers see the dawn again. It is understood that the current factors affecting the market price of pigs are manifested in these aspects: on the one hand, the typhoon "fireworks" swept through the markets of East China, North China and Central China, which almost stagnated the supply and marketing of pigs and the transportation of pork, and made the pig market show a strong horizontal trend. Features.

On the other hand, at the end of the month and the beginning of the month, the slaughter tasks of breeding enterprises and large-scale pig farms were completed, and the number of live pigs in the market decreased. We also mentioned earlier that the impact on the market began to show due to the loss of piglets caused by the winter epidemic. In addition, the gradual clearing of big fat pigs on the slaughter formed a certain support for the price of pigs, which promoted the psychology of carrying price at the breeding end, boost pig prices.

In general, the pig market is improving, showing a trend of "stable north and rising south". Stimulated by the main sales areas in the south, the northern pig market is quite interested in following, but whether it can be achieved, we still have to pay attention to the supply side and the consumption side. We will wait and see.

According to the procurement difficulty of slaughtering enterprises, the procurement difficulty of slaughtering enterprises has increased, and the difficulty of low-price procurement still exists. By the end of the month, the planned amount of breeding enterprises for sale is nearing the end, the phenomenon of active price increase of breeding enterprises has increased, and the pig price of breeding enterprises in the south has a certain premium phenomenon.

In the past two days, the pig market research and judgment: combined with the recent analysis of pig market factors, it is expected that the price of pigs in the past two days will show a "horizontal strengthening" trend, which will show a large-scale rise. For the pig market in August, the industry generally has a bullish mentality, mainly affected by three good news:

1, the decline in imports

The amount of pork imported from January to June this year was 2.3 million tons, up 8.5 percent year on year. However, due to the sharp rise in international meat prices, coupled with the three times higher national freight than in the past, the cost of pork imports has increased to about 10 yuan. However, the domestic pork retail sales have dropped to about 10-15 yuan, and the northern rural areas have reached the bottom of 8 yuan. It can be seen that the advantage of imported pork is no longer, and it is expected that the imported pork will be reduced by 50% in the second half of the year.

2. The gap period strikes

The winter of 20 years was relatively cold, and the survival rate of piglets was also affected. In addition, the increase of epidemic diseases around the Spring Festival and the recent "small flying" in the south all indicated that the supply of live pigs was tight in August.

At the same time, the number of big fat pigs sold in the market from June to July increased significantly, which is also the main reason for the delay in the price of pigs. However, with the tight stock of fat pigs, the current average weight of live pigs has dropped from 270kg to about 230kg. This shows that the big pigs will not "drag their feet" in the future, and the signal of market recovery is strong.

3. Increased consumer demand

Since August, the market sales of pork have increased. After all, there are more enrollment banquets in August. In addition, the beginning of autumn is coming, and many places have the tradition of "sticking autumn fat", which will also drive the consumption of pork. At the same time, the recent increase in rain, the temperature is not high, coupled with the relatively low price of pork, led to a wave of sales, catering demand is also rising, which will also lead to a wave of rise.

The industry believes that pig prices rose sharply in early August, especially when the beginning of autumn solar terms hit, demand is expected to increase, and then the price of pigs may be adjusted to 12 yuan per jin, which is good news for pig farmers who have been losing money for a long time.

So, August pig prices really want to usher in a big rise? At present, the beginning of autumn in early August, and still in the "dog days", the temperature is still very high, the downstream consumer demand boost, pig prices will usher in a wave of rise, but difficult to rise, in mid-August will continue to rise and fall fluctuations.

However, since late August, there have been more favorable factors for live pigs. For example, when the entrance banquet is piled up and the school canteen is stocked, the price of pigs will "rise all the way" and "red to the end". The price of pigs may rise to about 10 yuan before the middle of September. It is still difficult to rise to 12 yuan.

Can you copy the bottom of the piglet?

In the first half of the year, there were many losses in pig raising, and many large pig companies such as Zhengbang, New Hope, and Wen's all ushered in a wave of losses. Many pig farmers are not reconciled and have the idea of "copying the bottom" of piglets. After all, piglets have fallen for "17 weeks". The official average price is 43.4 yuan/kg, a year-on-year drop of 58.6. Private piglets are even more priceless., The transaction price is generally 200-300 yuan. Therefore, many people firmly believe that the end of the year can rise to more than 12 yuan, want to take the opportunity to fill the bar. However, the author thinks that this is a risky move, not to mention that the government has reminded the end of the era of high profits in pig raising. Besides, when the time comes, there will be overcapacity and a large increase in the number of pig prices. I hope everyone will make up for it rationally.