From "meat ingot" to "pig curse", what have farmers experienced?

Just entering the twelfth lunar month, many people have already started to go home for the New Year. Because it is particularly convenient to buy things now, people will not start hoarding New Year's materials 12 or 20 days in advance before the New Year. Changes in consumption patterns and concepts have also affected Price fluctuations.

Pork is an agricultural and sideline product that residents are more concerned about in their daily consumption. The rise and fall of pork prices has a lot to do with the rise and fall of various agricultural products, especially grain prices. In the eyes of many people, pork has always been a rigid demand, so the price of pork once rose rapidly. In the eyes of farmers, it can be regarded as a "meat ingot".

In addition to the cost of raw materials, it is the market supply that ultimately determines the rise and fall of pork prices. On January 4, the domestic pig price reached the * * price after New Year's Day, and most provinces in the country fell by more than 0.1 yuan.

From the data statistics, the decline in pork prices is still increasing. On January 4, the price of live pigs showed a state of 25 down and 3 flat. Many farmers thought they could make a lot of money between New Year's Day and the Spring Festival, but they did not expect that the rising trend of pork prices this year has no motivation.

The decline in pork prices in both the southern market and the northern market exceeded farmers' expectations, and the price of live pigs in some areas was even less than 14 yuan per kilogram.

In addition to large-scale domestic farming enterprises, most of the pork is free-range farmers. The price of pork is low, it is not raised after a large area of losses, and the imbalance between supply and demand has skyrocketed again. This is the curse of pigs.

Last year, the price of pig in December suddenly fell from 1899 to about 15 yuan per catty, which most people could not accept. At that time, the pigs that could be sold were about 300 catties. According to a farmer, after the Spring Festival last year, the pigs in the family could not be raised, so they were sold with pain, and their hearts were bleeding when they were sold out.

However, most people pressed the fence until after the Chinese New Year, and the result dropped from 15 yuan to 123 yuan per catty. Compared with years ago, it is even more unacceptable. Most of them are secondary fattening. The cost is about 12 yuan per catty, which is almost down to the cost price.

Many farmers continued to press the fence until May, when pigs rose by more than one kilo a day. At this time, it was really a 500kg cow and pig. At this time, the big fat pig only ate feed and did not grow much meat. Farmers had to focus on selling after blood compensation, causing pig prices to plummet again in May and June.

Most of the cattle and pigs were sold out in two months. With the storage in July and August, the price of pigs came to 8 yuan. The feed-to-meat ratio of live pigs is between 2.8 and 3. According to the new data of the Ministry of Rural Agriculture, the new price of pig feed is 3.62/kg.

The cost of feed for pig farming is higher this year, accounting for about 60% of the price of pigs. According to this calculation, the price of live pigs can be sold to 17.5 yuan per kilogram.

At present, the breeding costs of the four major breeding enterprises, Mu Yuan, Zheng Bang, New Hope and Wen's, are 15, 19.5, 17 and 20 respectively, all of which are in a relatively high position. The normal annual breeding cost of high-quality enterprises is 12 yuan/kg, which can be said to be a blood loss compared to the current pig price.

Under normal circumstances, the cost of breeding is between 8.7 and 10 yuan, and the price of pigs can fall by either two yuan, but retail investors are not big companies.

The end result after * * is that the retail investors who have escaped the baptism of swine fever for 18 years have been swept away by the wave of capital. So the big companies took the share of farming from a large number of retail investors by means of a black swan.

And pork prices in the balance of the market law, the price once again returned to rationality. But now the situation is different. This year's pig price drop has exceeded many people's expectations.

What dragged down the whole pig price was the big fat pig that could not be reached at the high price last year. In front of it was the big pig that was pressed before the end of the year, and behind it was the standard pig that had reached the slaughter standard and could not be put on the market.

From February to June, thin standard pigs formed fat pigs, cattle and pigs. The hot weather deepened the collapse of pig prices.

No one wants fat pigs, the market demand is thin pigs, so the new year is the time to come out after * *, and after that, they will be pressed. Until now, pork has come to a state of continuing to fall after a small rise during the New Year's Day holiday.

Prices **are ultimately guided by supply and demand, and as long as supply is still greater than demand, the decline in prices will not end. Then the bottom line of price decline must have something to do with cost.

Generally lower than the cost of a certain value, to reach the limit of farmers in the heart to bear, then even if there is excess capacity, can also be through the direct slaughter of sows to achieve the process of production capacity, so * * prices will certainly be affected by rising costs.

There is no big fluctuation in the consumption port, and the price of the production port falls like this, which makes it feel that the retail farmers are harvesting. If the production port lasts for a period of time, a large number of them are in a hurry to sell and keep their capital, and they are not kept in the later period.

Large factories are holding down part of their production capacity. When the impact cycle of small retail selling ends, large factories will control the price of pig seedlings and raise the threshold, and the price of pigs will rise again. Judging from the current domestic income prices, it is difficult to have the possibility of another big rise, and there will still be some possibilities for a small rise before the Spring Festival.

Epilogue

Although September is slowly coming to the peak consumption season, there are really many pigs on the market at present. On the whole, this year, there is a high probability that the number of pigs will exceed 0.7 billion, and the price will definitely not go up. It is almost impossible for high-priced pigs and high-priced meat.

Perhaps after the Spring Festival, the time to test farmers will really come.