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The latest forecast of the development prospect of China's pig industry in 2020
Release time:
2020-09-03
Affected by swine fever, pig production capacity fell sharply. Since the first half of 2018, the domestic pig stock and breeding sow stock began to decline continuously.
As of June 2019, the number of pigs on hand in 400 key monitoring counties was 255.61 million, down 25.8 percent from June 2018, while the number of breeding sows was 25.11 million, down 26.7 percent from the same period last year.
China's hog stock was 310.41 million in 2019, down 27.5 percent year-on-year, while China's hog stock was 69382 in 2018 and 544.19 million in 2019, down 21.6 percent year-on-year.
In 2017, pork production was 54.518 million tons, and in 2018, pork production decreased to only 54.0374 million tons. Pork production in 2019 was 42.55 million tons, down 21.3 percent year-on-year.
Mainland China is the world's largest pork consumption market. In 2018, mainland China's pork consumption was 55.4 million tons, accounting for 49.3 of the total global pork consumption. Since 2018, China's pork market has been affected by swine fever, the supply gap has widened, providing market opportunities for pork exports from other countries, and the permitted ticket for pork exports to China has become a sought-after "sweet pastry".
Mainland China, the United States, and the European Union are the world's major pork producers. Mainland China's pork production alone can account for about half of global pork production.
In 2018, China's pork production was 54.04 million tons, accounting for 47.8 percent of global pork production; the EU27 produced 24.3 million tons, accounting for 21.5 percent of global production; and the United States produced 11.94 million tons, accounting for 10.6 percent of global production.
In 2019, pork production in the EU and China is expected to decline due to the impact of African swine fever. In 2019, the share of pork production in mainland China in global production will fall to 44.7 per cent.
Starting from August 2019, the month-on-month increase in pork prices slowed down, while the year-on-year slowdown began in November. Statistics Bureau data in December showed that pork prices rose 97.0 per cent year-on-year and fell 5.6 per cent month-on-month, while pork prices turned from rising to falling.
The latest forecast of pig raising prospects in 2. and 2020
African swine fever has completely broken the original disease prevention and control system of China's pig industry, and it has also put the entire pig industry in dire straits; on the other hand, under the influence of African swine fever, the industrial structure of China's pig industry has undergone major changes, the construction of biosafety system has received unprecedented attention, and the degree of intensification has been continuously improved. It can be said that the arrival of non-plague has directly affected the development process of China's pig industry.
Pig prices will be at a high level in the two years 2019-2020, and pig raising is promising, especially for those farmers who want to enter the pig industry or plan to expand production capacity, next year will be an excellent opportunity. Since the second half of the year, the impact of the decline in my country's pig production capacity has begun to appear. In addition to pig prices, pork prices have also exceeded the highest level in previous years. Pork prices have a great impact on people's livelihood, so the current top priority is to quickly restore pig production capacity, so as to fundamentally reduce meat prices.
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