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The market reappears "5 yuan pig", when will the second dip end?
Release time:
2022-02-12
The market reappears "5 yuan pig", when will the second dip end?
Many 5 yuan Pigs
On February 10, the average price of domestic standard pigs fell by 0.21 yuan/jin, and the price of pigs fell to 6.55 yuan/jin. The price of pigs fell sharply, with a one-day drop of as much as 3%. In the domestic north-south market, the market is "green" again "!
Among them, in the northeast, north and northwest regions, the quotations of slaughtering enterprises generally fell to 0.2~0.3 yuan/kg. Among them, in Heijiliao region, the low-priced pig source hit bottom 5.9~6 yuan/kg. The Heilongjiang market fell below 6 yuan/kg, and the Jilin and Liaoning markets also gradually bottomed out in 6 yuan/kg. In most parts of North China, the price of slaughtering enterprises fell by 0.55~0.7 yuan, the market in Inner Mongolia hit the bottom of 12.3 yuan, and Beijing and Tianjin fell to 13.3 yuan/kg. In the northwest market, Xinjiang's market bottomed out at 11.1 yuan/kg, while Gansu's market fell to 11.9 yuan/kg!
The price of pigs in many places in the north fell below 6 yuan/kg, while the price of pigs in the southern market fluctuated weakly! In the southwest region, the quotations of slaughtering enterprises generally fell by 0.2~0.3 yuan, Sichuan and Chongqing bottomed out by 13.3~13.5 yuan/kg, and Yunnan prices fell to 12 yuan/kg. In East China, Shandong, Anhui, Jiangsu and Fujian, the price of pigs fell below 14 yuan/kg, and the market in Zhejiang fell to 14.1 yuan/kg. In Central China, the price of slaughtering enterprises generally dropped to 13.2-13.4 yuan/kg. In Guangdong and Guangxi, the price of pigs fell to 13.5-14.2 yuan/kg, and the market fell by 0.1 yuan/kg in a narrow range!
When will pig prices bottom out in this cycle?
Zhou Xiaoqiu, chief researcher of Guotai Junan Industrial Service Research Institute, said in an interview with reporters that with the rise in pig prices in October last year, part of the market believed that the later production capacity was released ahead of schedule, and the pig production capacity was now reduced, but in fact, it was due to the front of consumption and the backward shift of supply. There is also a view that pigs that should have been released in February and March will be pressed back and will not be released for the time being. But why do purchasing and storage tend to be in the March-June period? It is because this time is the year-round consumption **low season, therefore, unless the price expectations behind is very optimistic, otherwise it is unlikely to be pressed out now.
"Through the total supply calculation, we think the price bottom may be in the third quarter of 2022." Zhou Xiaoqiu said.
He pointed out that the market believes that prices will bottom out in the second quarter, the core reason is that production capacity will peak in June and July 2021. "But we believe that the peak of the overall market capacity will be in September 2021, and the decline in capacity to truly reverse the supply and demand of the entire market should be after the third quarter of this year."
Zhou Xiaoqiu said that before the third quarter, the supply of the entire market was relatively loose. In a loose supply environment, if the pressure is on the bar, it may be beneficial in the short term, but the trend is stretched to two or three months, and the risk is relatively high.
Xu Qing, chief analyst of Southwest Securities Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery Team, said earlier that due to the high pig price from October to December 2021, the industry's capacity reduction behavior slowed down in stages. After that, the pig price will probably bottom out again and fall below the average cost of the industry. Only then can it bring about further capacity reduction in the industry and accelerate the industry reversal. According to his prediction, the reversal point of pig price may occur between the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year, depending on the pace of capacity reduction in the industry.
Guohai Securities pointed out that the stock column determines the direction of the pig cycle, the downward cycle of pig prices there is a bottom shock, is expected to improve in the second half of 2022 pig prices. The second bottom of pig prices in this cycle is expected to be between June and August 2022, and the second bottom pig price is expected to be around 11-12 yuan.
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