Rest assured bold pig! Pig prices are going up again! Reliable predictions!
Driven by population growth and consumption upgrades,There will still be a rigid growth in pork consumption in 2022. However, due to the tight supply of domestic pork, China's import demand is still relatively large, and China's pork imports are expected to increase slightly in 2022.Zhu Cong, chief analyst of animal husbandry meat, agricultural product market analysis and early warning team of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, made the above statement.
In Zhu Cong's view, the domestic pork market for the whole of 2019 showedProduction remained stable, consumption increased significantly, imports increased, the trade deficit widened and prices were at a high level, and the rate of increase expanded significantly.Four characteristics.
1) Production remains stable
Specifically, China's livestock meat production in 2019 was 6.67 million tons, an increase of 3.6 percent over the previous year, the largest increase since 2009.The output of livestock meat was 4.88 million tons, an increase of 2.7 compared with the previous year, ending the continuous decline in the growth rate in the previous two years, and the output growth rate this year has rebounded significantly.
Zhu Cong said that in the development of the livestock industry,The driving effect of industrial poverty alleviation on its development is very obvious.According to data, most poverty-stricken counties are involved in poverty alleviation in the pig, cattle and sheep industry, increasing the breeding of female livestock and paying attention to breed improvement. In addition, the pilot project of changing grain to feed, which was implemented in 2015, has realized the effective supply of high-quality feed and promoted the combined development of breeding and breeding through the adjustment of planting structure.
2. Significant increase in consumption
In terms of livestock meat consumption, both sheep, beef and pork have a clear feature in 2019:The increase in consumption is relatively large.On the one hand, the continuous promotion of urbanization and the upgrading of residents' consumption structure have led to the increase of meat consumption demand.
3. Increase in import volume
In 2019, China's livestock meat imports showed a significant increase in the trend,The import volume of livestock meat reached 1.6597 million tons, an increase of 59.6 per cent compared with the previous year, and net imports also increased, mainly from Brazil, Argentina, Australia, Uruguay and New Zealand.
Driven by population growth and consumption upgrades, there will still be a rigid increase in the consumption of livestock meat. Zhu Cong ForecastIn 2022, China's livestock meat consumption will be 8.45 million tons and 5.34 million tons respectively, an increase of 1.4 and 1.2 respectively over the previous year.
Finally, Zhu Cong mentioned the outlook for my country's pork prices. It is expected that pork prices will continue to rise in the next ten years. On the one hand, although female livestock breeding has developed to a certain extent, the rate of increase is relatively slow, and future pork breeding will also face more With more environmental constraints, the growth rate of the entire production will be lower than the growth rate of consumption. Therefore, from a comprehensive judgment, supply will remain tight and prices will continue to rise.
