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The market atmosphere is pessimistic, pig futures fell to a new low since the listing! | July pork prices down 43.5 per cent year-on-year
Release time:
2021-08-17
The market atmosphere is pessimistic, pig futures fell to a new low since the listing! | July pork prices down 43.5 per cent year-on-year
On August 16, the main pig futures contract LH2109 closed at 16160 yuan/ton, down 4.18 percent, with the lowest price of 16140 yuan/ton, a new low since listing.
On August 16, the National Bureau of Statistics released CPI data for July, with pork prices down 43.5 per cent......
Pessimistic Market Climate Pig Futures Fall to New Record
Since August, pigs have started a double-dip mode, and the market atmosphere has continued to be pessimistic, plunging 4.18 percent on Monday to a record low of 16140 yuan. The number of live pigs out of the column and the weight of the column are showing an increasing trend. In addition, the pork sold by the big pigs in the early stage is still hoarded in the intermediate market, and the demand growth is limited. Traders are less motivated to take goods, and the market supply is still in a loose pattern.
In the first half of this year, the number of domestic live pigs for slaughter reached 0.337 billion, and the number of breeding sows exceeded 43 million, exceeding the national early warning line. Although the breeding end has been aware of the recovery of production capacity and make adjustments, but the recovery of production capacity "inertia" has existed, coupled with the cold storage there are a large number of frozen pork waiting to be released, the market as a whole is in a loose supply pattern.
In addition, Guangdong Province has decided to suspend the transfer of slaughtering pigs from non-Central and Southern regions that have passed the "point-to-point" record of pigs to Guangdong Province from August 15. Or will be good for the price of pigs in Guangdong Province, the north-south spread may further expand.
Pork prices down 43.5 percent in July
On August 16, the National Bureau of Statistics released CPI data for July. Consumer prices across the country rose 1.0 percent year-on-year, 0.1 percentage points lower than in June, and 0.3 percent month-on-month.
Among them, food, tobacco and alcohol prices fell by 1.8. in foodPork prices down 43.5 percentFresh vegetable prices fell by 4.0 per cent, grain prices rose by 0.7 per cent and fresh fruit prices rose by 5.2 per cent. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose 1.3 percent, 0.4 percentage points more than in June.
Founder medium-term futures said that both the supply and demand sides of live pigs have been affected by the epidemic in recent days. On the supply side, pig farms have risk-averse slaughter operations in order to avoid restrictions on pig trading and material entry and exit caused by regional blockades. This phenomenon mostly occurs at the end of July and the beginning of August. At present, the market's early slaughter is significantly reduced in the epidemic-related areas, but pig slaughter trading is difficult and pig farms are relatively passive. On the demand side, some regional control efforts to upgrade, catering group meals and other channels are limited, the demand for orders in the sales area has decreased significantly, mainly reflected in the East China and Henan, Hunan market, white pig transfer-in and transfer-out are limited. Overall, demand is more affected than supply, and pig prices may continue to weaken in the short term.
China Merchants Futures said that the recent epidemic has a dampening effect on consumption, the tourism and catering industry has been significantly affected to suppress pork consumption, pig transportation is restricted, the terminal goods are not good, so the consumption in August was greatly affected. In July, the slaughtering volume of official designated slaughtering enterprises was 22 million, up 10.2 percent month-on-month and 65.77 percent year-on-year. has returned to normal year levels. Low-cost pork led to a gradual rebound in consumption, pig supply and demand reached a short-term dynamic balance. In July, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 53.50 percent, 9.23 percent month-on-month, 184.57 percent year-on-year, and the frozen goods storage rate was 31 percent.
In the short term, the pig stock has returned to the 17-year level, but the average post-slaughter weight is still more than 10% higher than the normal year of 17 years. In the case of low profits, farmers began to eliminate inefficient sows, and it is expected that the standard pigs, large fat and sows will continue to supply the market. Demand off-season does not change, the national temperature rise pork consumption is difficult to pick up, the main force is close to the delivery month, by the weak in stock drag overlay plate water 2620.
Source: Boya and News Integrated Financial Sector, Sina Finance, if there is infringement please contact delete.
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