6 even up! The pig price will break 10? In the first half of the year, 0.37 billion heads were put on the market, which is more dangerous than the low price.

       Since August, pig prices have ushered in a wave of rising red, which is good news that many people did not expect. In fact, the price of pigs has now ushered in a "six consecutive rise". Since late July, because the task of slaughter by pig companies has been achieved, they have chosen to hesitate to sell and press the slaughter, and the free-range farmers are also affected by it. Too much rain makes it more difficult to transport live pigs, and the price of pigs has begun to rise sharply.

01, pig price 6 consecutive rise

Judging from today's pig price, the average price of live pigs is 15.95 yuan/kg, up 0.06 yuan from the previous day, but still down 57.7 from the same period of last year. This shows that pig raising is still at a loss, with a pig losing more than 100 yuan. If it is an outsourcing piglet, it still loses more than 500 yuan.

According to the monitoring data, the northeast market is 14.6-15 yuan/kg, of which Liaoning fell 0.1 yuan; the north China market is stable, the price is 15-15.8 yuan/kg; the northwest market is 14.25-15.85 yuan/kg, of which Gansu rebounded 0.1 yuan. Southwest market is stable, the price is 15-15.4 yuan/kg, of which Yunnan rebounded 0.2 yuan, Guizhou rose 0.1 yuan.

The market in East China rose steadily, with a market of 16.1-17.1 yuan/kg, of which Jiangsu, Anhui and Fujian rebounded by 0.2-0.4 yuan. The price in central China is 16-16.5 yuan/kg, of which Hubei and Hunan each rose by 0.3 yuan. The price in South China is 16.9-19.6 yuan/kg, of which Guangxi rose 0.4 yuan and Hainan rebounded 0.2 yuan.

From today's market analysis, the upward trend in the north is not too big, because the number of pig companies at the beginning of the month is not too large, the overall market is showing a tight state. However, with more rain and high temperature, the risk of raising pigs is relatively high and the disease of pigs is increasing. Therefore, many pig farmers in the north have started to put on the market, thus the overall price in the north is stable.

In the southern region, because it is difficult to transfer pork from the north, and the price difference between the north and the south is not large, local pork has become the main support for consumption, but the local pork supply is tight, which has led to a wave of rebound.

02, pig price to break 10?

At present, affected by the dog days, consumer demand is not very good, pork trading volume is not high, and terminal delivery volume is not too stable, so pig prices have not shown a rising trend. Although now ushered in the "six consecutive rise", but the price of pigs has not broken through the 8 yuan mark, it can be seen that the rise of live pigs is relatively weak.

Now the return of live pigs to the "level 2 warning" has also given Tu enterprises more confidence. After all, in the short term, the government will not issue a collection and storage plan. With the policy regulation and control away, Tu enterprises have been in a low price mood, which is also the main reason why pig prices have not risen sharply.

Of course, there are also many positive factors that have promoted the rise of live pigs in the near future. For example, after the big pigs were put on the market from May to July, there are not too many big pigs on the farm, and the clearance of big pigs is actually good news for the pig market. The pressure on pork supply has been reduced, which naturally led to a rebound in the market.

At the same time, pig farmers are still at a loss, and they are eager for an early rebound in pig prices. Therefore, the recent willingness to market is not strong. On this basis, the pig market is also very good. Coupled with the recent increase in rain, pork cross-provincial transportation difficulties, southern pig prices are still rising support.

So whether the next pig price will really break through the 10 yuan mark?

In a short period of time, it is still very difficult for pig prices to break through 10 yuan. After all, many people are shocked by the speed of recovery of production capacity. By the end of June, the stock of sows has reached 102 of the normal year, and the stock of live pigs has also reached 99.4 of the end of 2017.%. It is expected that July will fully return to normal, and then overcapacity will appear. At that time, it is not easy for pig prices to rise sharply.

Today, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises has returned to the normal level, but the consumption demand for pork is only 80% of that in previous years, which has not yet returned to the normal level.

In the first half of this year, 0.37 billion pigs were put on the market, and the pork output was more than 2700 million tons, which was almost the same as that in normal years. Coupled with the import of frozen meat, the supply of pigs was sufficient, but the consumption demand was not 100, indicating that many pork was stored in cold storage. Once the price of pigs rises, the frozen meat will enter the market quickly, so it is difficult for pig prices to continue to rise.

Although the stock of big pigs is declining today, according to industry analysis, with the continuation of high temperature and rain, the risk of epidemic disease increases, and we will not hold the fence for too long, and then we will speed up the speed of slaughter. Today's rebound in pig prices, in the final analysis, is affected by the tightness of pigs, and then the price of pigs may not be able to rise above the 10 yuan mark.

03, more dangerous things than low prices are coming.

Nowadays, the pig market has been at the 7-8 yuan mark, but the breeding cost is 8-8.5 yuan, which means that pig farmers continue to be at a loss. If it was in the past, a pig farmer with a pig price of 8 yuan could earn about 600 yuan, but now he is at a loss. It can be seen how much the cost of breeding has increased. This is also a more terrible thing than the low price. After all, who can keep losing money?

As for why the cost of raising pigs is so high, one is that the corn market is on the high side and the feed cost is soaring. One is that there are more ternary sows and the production capacity is low. One is that environmental pressure, epidemic prevention costs and veterinary drug costs are all rising.

Next, pig farmers can only control costs to live better. Mu Yuan said that the next step is to control the cost at 7 yuan per catty. Wen Shi said that the cost will be reduced to 10 yuan per catty in the second half of the year and 8 yuan next year. From this, we can see why Makhara made a profit and lost money.

As a free-range farmer, it is also necessary to increase revenue and reduce expenditure from all aspects to control costs, so that pig raising can be profitable.