Pig quality increase beef and mutton consumption increase poultry meat growth slowdown -- "China Agricultural Outlook Report" predicts the trend of China's meat market in the next ten years.
The 2021 China Agricultural Outlook Conference released the "China Agricultural Outlook Report (2021-2030)" (hereinafter referred to as the report), which predicted the development trends and prospects of 18 agricultural products including wheat, rice, corn, and pork in the next ten years. Among them, pork prices, beef and mutton supply, poultry consumption and other issues of concern. To this end, the reporter will take you to understand how the meat market will change in the future.
Pork supply will continue to recover and prices will gradually return to normal.
Affected by multiple factors such as the African swine fever and the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, the number of hog slaughter and pork production declined in 2020, but the decline narrowed significantly, and pork supply and demand still showed a clear tight balance, with pig prices and pork prices rising significantly over the previous year, and pork imports reaching a record high of 4.39 million tons.
Farming income pull and support policies drive the continuous recovery of pig production capacity. Pork production is expected to reach 49.27 million tons in 2021, an increase of 19.8 percent. Pork imports are expected to be 3.8 million tons, down 13.4 percent from the previous year. Apparent pork consumption is expected to be 52.97 million tonnes in 2021, an increase of 16.5 per cent over the previous year. Pig and pork prices will fall steadily, and pig prices are expected to gradually approach normal price levels in the fourth quarter.
Over the next 10 years, pork supply may go through a process of controlling the epidemic and restoring production capacity to a decline in production. The report shows that in the early stage of the next 10 years, the main task of the pig industry is still to effectively respond to the African swine fever epidemic and increase pig production capacity. It is estimated that the number of live pigs and pork production will reach 0.613 billion and 49.27 million tons respectively in 2021. In the middle and late stages of the next 10 years, the growth rate of pork production will drop significantly. In 2030, the supply of live pigs is expected to be 0.713 billion heads and 59.98 million tons of pork.
Pig production will accelerate the transformation to "quality improvement and increment", the mode of production will change to regionalization, specialization, scale, industrialization and ecology, facilities and equipment will develop from mechanization to automation, informatization and intelligence, the mode of supply will change from hot fresh meat to cold fresh meat, and the mode of circulation will change from "pig transfer" to "meat transfer. The proportion of 500 large-scale breeding is expected to reach more than 65% in 2025 and more than 80% in 2030.
The report believes that the outlook for the early pig prices will generally be in a downward channel. In the long run, affected by the accelerated recovery of production capacity, it is expected that after 2023 pig supply may appear phase surplus situation, after 2024 pig prices or will again enter a new round of price cycle, but the scale level to enhance the stability of pig prices, volatility will be significantly lower than the previous two rounds of cycle.
Poultry meat production and consumption slowdown imports tend to decline
In 2020, China's poultry meat production continued to grow, reaching 23.61 million tons, an increase of 5.5 percent over the previous year, and the proportion of poultry meat in total meat production reached 30.9 percent, an increase of 1.6 percentage points over the previous year. Pig production is still in the stage of capacity recovery, and the market demand for poultry meat has increased. The consumption of poultry meat is 24.7 million tons, an increase of 8.9 over the previous year. Driven by domestic consumer demand, poultry imports increased significantly, reaching a record high of 1.55 million tons, an increase of 93.8 percent over the previous year. Affected by the international new coronary pneumonia epidemic, China's poultry meat exports were 460000 tons, down 10.5 percent from the previous year. There is an oversupply of poultry meat and prices continue to fall. Feed costs have risen and the benefits of meat and poultry farming have fallen sharply.
Affected by the continued release of meat and poultry production capacity, poultry production is expected to continue to increase in 2021, reaching 24.32 million tons. With the continuous recovery of pig production, the substitution of poultry meat consumption will be suppressed and the growth rate of consumption will slow down. Due to the increased risk of external imports of the new crown pneumonia outbreak, poultry imports are expected to decrease significantly in 2021, with exports rising slightly.
Poultry prices rebounded slightly due to consumer demand and rising feed costs.
In the next 10 years, with the concentration of the meat and poultry industry and the improvement of breeding technology, poultry meat production will maintain a growth trend, but the growth rate will be high before and low after, with an average annual growth rate of 0.8, and will reach 25.55 million tons in 2030. The upgrading of meat consumption structure and the formation of healthy dietary habits of a new generation of young people have led to the growth of poultry meat demand, but the growth rate is slowing down, with an average annual growth rate of 1.3, and consumption will reach 25.63 million tons in 2030. As domestic poultry production is faster than consumption growth, imports first fell and then stabilized, and exports continued to grow slightly. Imports and exports are expected to reach 650000 tons and 570000 tons respectively in 2030. Poultry prices will fluctuate slightly upward due to increased labor, environmental protection and non-anti-breeding costs.
The production and consumption of beef and mutton increased steadily, and the price was running at a high level.
In 2020, driven by the state's strong support for cattle and sheep production policy, the yield level of cattle and sheep increased, the stock and fences increased year-on-year, and the production capacity increased steadily. The annual output of beef and mutton reached 6.72 million tons and 4.92 million tons respectively, up 0.8 per cent and 1.0 per cent respectively from the same period last year, narrowing the growth rate. The consumption of beef and mutton continued to increase, with diversified consumption varieties and diversified consumption patterns. Beef imports increased year-on-year but the growth rate slowed down. The annual import volume was 2.1195 million tons, an increase of 27.7 percent year-on-year; mutton imports fell slightly year-on-year, and the annual import volume was 365000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.0 percent. Beef and mutton prices rose by 10% year-on-year, at an all-time high.
In 2021, the state will continue to encourage grain reform, industrial poverty alleviation and the modernization of animal husbandry. The scale and specialization of breeding will be improved year by year, the production layout will be gradually optimized, and the comprehensive production capacity will be continuously improved. At the end of 2020, the stock of cattle and sheep increased by 4.6 and 1.9 respectively year-on-year, providing favorable conditions for the growth of beef and mutton production in 2021. The report expects beef and mutton production to reach 6.84 million tons and 5 million tons in 2021, up 1.8 percent and 1.6 percent year-on-year, respectively. Outdoor consumption of beef and mutton is gradually recovering, and the total consumption and proportion are expected to increase. It is estimated that in 2021, the consumption of beef and mutton will be 8.99 million tons and 5.37 million tons respectively. Consumer demand is strong, the gap between supply and demand is normal, in the short term beef and mutton still maintain a net import pattern. Beef and mutton prices are expected to be flat or slightly higher throughout 2021, basically following the pattern of seasonal price fluctuations.
In the next 10 years, China will actively develop the cattle and sheep industry, accelerate the construction of a modern breeding system, continue to promote the combination of planting and breeding, recycling and comprehensive utilization, achieve green and sustainable development, and promote herbivorous animal husbandry to a high-quality development path. The report predicts that by 2030, the output of beef and mutton will reach about 7.9 million tons and 5.76 million tons respectively, an increase of 19.5 per cent and 18.8 per cent respectively compared with the base period, with an average annual growth rate of 1.8 per cent and 1.7 per cent respectively. With the improvement of residents' income level, the upgrading of consumption structure and the process of urbanization, the consumption demand of beef and mutton will increase. By 2030, the consumption of beef and mutton will be 10.3 million tons and 6.2 million tons respectively, an increase of 25.4 per cent and 19.0 per cent respectively compared with the base period, with an average annual growth rate of 2.3 per cent and 1.8 per cent respectively. The domestic industry continues to develop healthily, the self-sufficiency rate of beef and mutton continues to increase, and the degree of import dependence is expected to weaken. In the future, imports will become an important supplement to variety adjustment. Beef and mutton prices are expected to rise slightly in the early period under the support of high cost, and the outlook tends to be stable in the later period.
(Farmers Daily, China Agricultural Network reporter Li Liying)
