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[Industry Information] Analysis of China's Animal Husbandry Industry Situation in 2020 and Outlook Report in 2021

Release time:

2021-05-31

[Industry Information] Analysis of China's Animal Husbandry Industry Situation in 2020 and Outlook Report in 2021

A few days ago, the 2020 China Animal Husbandry Industry Situation Analysis and 2021 Outlook Report hosted by the China Animal Husbandry Association was held online. He Xintian, secretary-general of the China Animal Husbandry Association, said that the sudden neo-coronary pneumonia epidemic has caused a serious impact on the development of my country's animal husbandry. In addition, the African swine fever epidemic has not been stably controlled, which has aggravated the difficulties and challenges of animal husbandry production. The majority of practitioners on the front coordinated the prevention and control of the epidemic, and the stable development of animal husbandry has achieved initial results.

In 2020, my country's animal husbandry industry has made outstanding contributions to achieving the successful conclusion of the "13th Five-Year Plan", building a well-off society in an all-round way, and winning the battle against poverty. It has also played a "ballast stone" and "stabilizer" for the country's sustainable economic and social development. "The role. However, the constraints of relying on domestic resources and environment to develop animal husbandry are becoming increasingly tight, and relying on imports to adjust the balance of animal products will face more instability and uncertainty. The development of animal husbandry is facing more arduous tasks in the supply of animal products and the imbalance of animal products. Challenges such as prominent and increasing risks of industrial development.

He Xintian said that looking forward to 2021, standing at the intersection of the "two centenary years", a new journey of building a modern socialist country in an all-round way is about to begin. The "14th Five-Year Plan" is a critical period for the transformation and upgrading of my country's animal husbandry from a large animal husbandry country to a powerful animal husbandry country. It is necessary to gather strength, increase support, promote the advanced foundation of the animal husbandry industry, and modernize the industrial chain supply chain. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, my country's dairy cows, pigs and other livestock and poultry breeding will take the lead in basically realizing modernization, and the quality, efficiency and competitiveness of the animal husbandry industry will continue to increase. The new development goals are to ensure supply, strengthen safety, optimize ecology, and promote development.

Pig industry: hog production recovered better than expected

According to the National Bureau of Statistics, there are 370.39 million pigs in stock in 2020, an increase of 20.7 per cent over the same period last year, of which 38.22 million sows can be bred, an increase of 28.0 per cent. Recently, the supply of pork in the market has continued to improve, and the price of pork in the national market has dropped from 59.64 yuan per kilogram in February last year to about 48 yuan. It is understood that the national pig out of the column has been nine consecutive months of growth, in November 2020 month-on-month growth of 16%, an increase of 66.1 percent year-on-year, is the fourth quarter of 2019 pig production capacity bottomed out since the most out of the column month.

According to the China Animal Husbandry Association, pig stocks rose 8.6 percent year-on-year in April 2020 and 58.6 percent year-on-year at the end of December. The recovery of pig production in 2020 is better.

Shi Shouding, deputy director of the Pig Branch of the China Animal Husbandry Association, said that pig production capacity and consumption are recovering, and profits in 2021 will be significantly better than in 2019. If the epidemic is stable, the pig production capacity will still increase significantly in the later period, pork supply will maintain the growth trend year-on-year, and the downward cycle of live pig prices will remain unchanged.In the first quarter of 2021, the price of live pigs decreased significantly, but still at a high level, it is recommended that farmers do not press the column and sell, orderly out of the column.

Poultry Industry: Strengthening Poultry Consumption Guidance

In 2020, the supply-side impact of the epidemic on the poultry industry is small, after the occurrence of African swine fever, chicken, duck and goose meat production have increased, in the short term white feather meat ducks increased the most.

In terms of laying hens, the stock of breeders increased significantly, the supply of chicks decreased slightly, the stock of laying hens was slightly higher than the same period in 2019, and the production of eggs increased, with the average price in 2020 at 7.37 yuan per kilogram, down 16.54 percent year-on-year. Due to the increase in stock and the impact of the epidemic, commercial egg hens were raised at a loss.

In terms of white feather broilers, in 2020, the ancestral storage column increased by 17.16 percent year-on-year, the parental storage column increased by 18.09 percent year-on-year, the supply of chicks, the chicken out of the column increased, the benefits of the whole industry chain significantly fell. Yellow feather broiler overall market volatility ups and downs, still dominated by the downturn. In terms of white feather meat ducks, the scale of breeding ducks is at a historical high, with serious overcapacity and poor efficiency. Goose, meat pigeons and other oversupply, in a difficult period, the general loss of meat pigeons. Wao Wenying, deputy director of the Poultry Industry Branch of the China Animal Husbandry Association, said that in general, the volume of the poultry industry will increase and the price will decrease in 2020.

according to analysis by waist wen ying,The stock of laying hens is expected to be flat or slightly higher in 2021 compared to 2020.In terms of white feather broilers, the industry faces the market risk of overcapacity, taking into account the recovery of pig production capacity and the increase in imported meat. White feather meat duck,The industry still faces greater risks in 2021.In the long run, in order to further expand the consumption of poultry meat, the industry should strengthen the popularization of poultry meat for a long time, and increase the society's consumer confidence and preference for poultry products.

Cattle Industry: From Incremental Development to Value-added Development

In 2020, the production situation of the beef cattle industry showed strong demand for beef consumption, record highs in market prices, weakening of the seasonal pattern of market prices, and significant growth in beef imports. In November 2020, beef reached 85.57 yuan per kg, 4% higher than the peak in 2019, and the annual average price was 84 yuan per kg, up 14.7 from 2019. From January to November 2020, 1.91 million tons of beef were imported, with an import value of US $9.23 billion billion, an increase of 30% and 28% respectively.

In 2020, after the domestic new coronary pneumonia epidemic eased, the majority of fattening cattle practitioners actively supplement the column. Zhao Hang, secretary-general of the Cattle Industry Branch of the China Animal Husbandry Association, predicts that the number of beef cattle will increase in 2021.It is unlikely that the market price of domestic fattening cattle will rise sharply again in 2021.In addition, in 2021, the economic benefits of beef cattle farming will face the squeeze challenge of price "ceiling" and cost "floor", and price increases will be weak. Zhao Hang said that the new era, the new situation to accelerate the pace of industrial upgrading of beef cattle.

In recent years, due to the growth of consumer demand and the weak foundation of cattle source reserves, the prices of live cattle and beef in China have continued to rise, and the prices of shelf cattle, calves and fattening cattle are upside down.In the future, the beef cattle industry should continuously improve the level of fine feeding management and production efficiency, from incremental development to value-added development.

Sheep industry: improving quality and efficiency has become the theme of development.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs's fixed-point monitoring of bazaars and collection points in 500 counties across the country, the average price of mutton nationwide in the fourth week of December 2020 was 83.93 yuan per kilogram, up 4.6 percent year-on-year and rising for the ninth consecutive week. In addition, China's per capita consumption of mutton grew significantly faster, with per capita apparent consumption increasing by 22.88 per cent in 10 years. Mutton production increased from 2000 to 4.875 million tons in 2019, an increase of 20.1 percent. Zhao Yin, secretary-general of the Sheep Industry Branch of the China Animal Husbandry Association, said that the current high-profit market in the sheep industry has delayed the elimination of backward production capacity. Once the market returns to stability, backward production capacity will be eliminated by the market.

At present, market prices, project investment, breeding costs, etc. are at a relatively high level in recent years, and there are extremely high requirements for investors' capital, technology, channels, and experience.In addition, with the stabilization of epidemic control and the recovery of the national economy and consumption capacity, the pressure on supply and demand of mutton and the increase in market prices will once again drive up imports. Zhao Yin said that the sheep industry used to focus on the quantity of breeding. In the future, the development of the sheep industry will focus on quality and production efficiency.

Characteristic animal husbandry: the development prospect is getting better

In 2020, the rabbit industry will show strong resilience in production and breeding, market sales, epidemic prevention and risk response. Meat rabbit production remained stable, rabbit, rex rabbit production is still recovering. Jie Guozhong, deputy secretary general of the Rabbit Industry Branch of the China Animal Husbandry Association,In 2021, the meat rabbit industry is expected to continue to maintain an upward trend, and the development of the entire rabbit industry will continue to rise.

In the donkey industry, Wang Chunhong, secretary-general of the Donkey Industry Branch of the China Animal Husbandry Association, said that the donkey industry situation has improved in 2020, the prices of fattening donkeys, donkey foals, and female donkeys have returned to normal track, and the three main products of donkey meat, donkey milk, and donkey-hide gelatin have been developed. The price of live donkeys bottomed out and returned to normal. The price of donkey meat rose steadily to a new high. The development momentum of donkey meat catering and cooked food processing was good. The price of donkey skin rose, the inventory decreased, the sales of donkey hide gelatin increased, and the market improved.

In addition, pigeon, quail, camel and other characteristic industries have developed steadily, and fur animals and deer industry have been formally incorporated into the animal husbandry production system. He Xintian said that the external development environment has been greatly improved, and the development prospects of characteristic animal husbandry are getting better. In the future, the characteristic animal husbandry will continue to meet the people's demand for diversification, characteristics and differentiation of animal products.

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